A six-wicket defeat to arch-rivals India in the Asia Cup Super Four clash has left Pakistan staring at a tricky road to the finals. While India now look almost certain to book their spot, the Salman Ali Agha-led side still have a mathematical chance of making it through — provided they get their act together in the next two games.
Here’s a breakdown of how Pakistan can still qualify:
Super Four standings (after first round of matches):
| Teams | M | W | L | T | N/R | PT | NRR | Series Form | Next Matches | For | Against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.689 | W | vs BAN, SL | 174/18.5 | 171/20.0 |
| Bangladesh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.121 | W | vs IND, PAK | 169/19.5 | 168/20.0 |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.121 | L | vs PAK, IND | 168/20.0 | 169/19.5 |
| Pakistan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.689 | L | vs SL, BAN | 171/20.0 | 174/18.5 |
Scenario 1: Win both games (Pakistan’s best route)
If Pakistan beat Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, they will finish on 4 points. That will almost certainly guarantee them a place in the final, irrespective of other results. Simply put, their fate will remain in their own hands.
Scenario 2: Win one, lose one (NRR comes into play)
If Pakistan split results — beating either Bangladesh or Sri Lanka while losing the other — then qualification will depend heavily on net run rate (NRR).
In this case, India winning both their remaining games would create a three-way battle between Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for the second spot.
Scenario 3: India slip up, Pakistan win both
The only route for Pakistan to actually leapfrog India is if the Men in Blue lose both their matches while Pakistan beat Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. That would leave Pakistan at 4 points, pushing India into a three-way fight for survival.
What this means for Pakistan
The equation is straightforward: win both games, and the final is theirs to take. Anything less, and calculators will come out, with net run rate becoming the deciding factor.
Salman Ali Agha and his men now face Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in what are effectively knockout games. Pakistan’s margin for error is gone — from here on, it’s all or nothing.
